I'm a great believer in entrails, triskaidekaphobia, not treading on the cracks in the pavement, the significance of the flight of vultures across different sectors of the sky, all kinds of nasty superstitious stuff...
Well, I do read omens. It's what analysts are trained to do.
Omen of a fall in the residential property market; developers promise to pay your mortgage.
It's happening again. I saw two separate offers last week. Very nice. Last time this happened was while Docklands property was in free fall, late 1980s and early 1990s.
Mortgage paid for two years; effectively a 10-20% cut in price, no?
Wednesday, 31 October 2007
Property disconnect
I keep reading in the consumer press that house prices are going up. Not as fast as they did, but still up. (The fact that predictions of 1-2% price growth are now way below inflation, so you would be better off hoarding baked beans than buying a house, seems to have escaped many commentators.)
But the stock market is telling me a different story. First off, Humberts - which has just had a profit warning. Not unexpected if you look at the continuous decline in the share price since May.
(A chat with a chum in the sector confirms that while April was a record month, May saw the beginning of decline, with Home Information Packs and interest rate hikes giving agents a negative double whammy.)
And the commercial property sector is down nearly 30% over the the past six months. I suspect that because it attracts a slightly more educated investor - put it this way, most people don't buy their own offices so they have no emotional attachment to the market - it may be reflecting the credit crunch rather more quickly than the residential sector.
I still think it will take two or three years for the residential market to fall off definitely. But if my reading is right, some time in 2010 I'll probably buy my first new repossession. And it will be either a north Norwich two-up two-down terrace (put it this way, I've done all right on the first one!) or one of the ritzy new flats and townhouses along the Wensum, probably from a buy-to-let investor gone wrong.
But the stock market is telling me a different story. First off, Humberts - which has just had a profit warning. Not unexpected if you look at the continuous decline in the share price since May.
(A chat with a chum in the sector confirms that while April was a record month, May saw the beginning of decline, with Home Information Packs and interest rate hikes giving agents a negative double whammy.)
And the commercial property sector is down nearly 30% over the the past six months. I suspect that because it attracts a slightly more educated investor - put it this way, most people don't buy their own offices so they have no emotional attachment to the market - it may be reflecting the credit crunch rather more quickly than the residential sector.
I still think it will take two or three years for the residential market to fall off definitely. But if my reading is right, some time in 2010 I'll probably buy my first new repossession. And it will be either a north Norwich two-up two-down terrace (put it this way, I've done all right on the first one!) or one of the ritzy new flats and townhouses along the Wensum, probably from a buy-to-let investor gone wrong.
Monday, 1 October 2007
another website whinge
I was reading an article today on the Times website and noticed something rather odd. Every time there is meant to be a dash, there's a question mark. I know this is something to do with character encoding - in html you need to use — or – (depending on the length of the dash) to ensure correct display.
But surely, the Times ought to be able to get this right? Don't they have any subs? Don't they have anyone with the most basic knowledge of web design?
It looks as if they are simply copying journalist's word files straight into the content management system without checking for non-html compliant characters. Silly.
On another note, time for a whinge about a PR company that today sent me a press release that didn't tell me the name of the company issuing it, and simply said 'Please read the attached'.
The only other people who do this besides PR companies are, well, spammers, and lovely people whose uncle's million pounds is looking for a home in my bank account, just as long as I give them my PIN number. Sorry, nice Financial PR people, this release went right in the bin.
But surely, the Times ought to be able to get this right? Don't they have any subs? Don't they have anyone with the most basic knowledge of web design?
It looks as if they are simply copying journalist's word files straight into the content management system without checking for non-html compliant characters. Silly.
On another note, time for a whinge about a PR company that today sent me a press release that didn't tell me the name of the company issuing it, and simply said 'Please read the attached'.
The only other people who do this besides PR companies are, well, spammers, and lovely people whose uncle's million pounds is looking for a home in my bank account, just as long as I give them my PIN number. Sorry, nice Financial PR people, this release went right in the bin.
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