Friday 9 February 2007

The new telecoms

BT results are very interesting. For the first time, the company has reversed its market share losses in the residential market. Obviously - though it took more than fifteen years to chip away - its quasi monopoly share was no longer tenable; it now seems that it may have found its natural place in the market. If I was the regulator I would be turning my attention to BT as a wholesaler - where it remains dominant - rather than as a retail provider.

'New wave' revenues are now well over a third of total. Again, that doesn't make BT the most exciting company out there, but it suggests it has now reached an accommodation with the market.

The share price reflects this. I bought mine around 180p I seem to remember - they're now trading at 319p. That's still giving a forecast 4.5% yield, according to Digital Look; less than the bank, whereas it used to be some way higher. My gut feeling is that this isn't too stingy, given forecasts for 14% EPS growth this year, but if the shares went much further up I might have to revise that opinion.

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