Property trends

Had an interesting visit to OPP Live last week - an exhibition focused on property professionals who want to network, rather than flogging overseas property to the public. Obviously, a quite different feel from a b2c exhibition.

One interesting feature was the prominence of online marketing at the event. Property portals, search marketing advisors, and software companies were much in evidence. We've seen a huge increase in the amount of media devoted to overseas properties - we've gone from 6 to over 30 magazines - and I suspect too that not all the portals will make it. But right now it's a fascinating area and it's interesting to watch as the smarter portals start to differentiate themselves, through specialisation, use of new media such as podcasting, or addition of specialised content.

Another interesting feature which the overseas property sector shares with the stock market was the search for the next big thing. Panama looks interesting - already sells well to US investors and is now looking for the UK buyer - and in Eastern Europe, Bulgaria may already be past it, with other opportunities emerging. It's a bit like looking for value in shares - investors are heading for riskier and riskier propositions as the price of more mature or just better researched shares heads up. There's nothing wrong with this - it's the way markets work; but at a certain point perhaps there's the worry that investors aren't completely au fait with the risks they're taking.

The market now is highly focused on development property, too. Of course there are good business reasons for this - it's easier to skill up staff on a single large development, easier to market, and there are fewer legal wrinkles selling a new build. But when I see a lot of development happening I do begin to worry about the supply/demand equation. What really interests me here is that there's currently no way to quantify this. Demand/supply data is entirely anecdotal - look out from the balcony of the ski resort apartment you're thinking about, and how many cranes can you see? That seems to be the case even in the UK. Wouldn't it be worth setting up a supply/demand index for Spain, or Bulgaria - total sales in the month against total new starts?

That's where the US market is way ahead of us, with the housing starts and completions numbers freely available and pretty widely reported. Though it still doesn't mean anyone has a clear idea of where the US real estate market is going...